Cooler Weather This Week

The unusually warm weather, we have been enjoying the last few weeks, will come to end this week. A strong cold front will be will be dropping from the north today  Temperatures will falling 40s early tomorrow afternoon into 30s, tomorrow evening. To the left is the NAM weather forecast model. It has temperatures dropping into upper 20s across the area on Monday night. Normally, these temps would not be big deal, at this time year. But after last few weeks, with temperatures in 70s, this might come to shock to you.

It will not be this cold, all week, however. Temperatures will slowly rise back to 45-50, Tuesday afternoon. A warm front will move through the area on Wednesday. High temps back into upper 50s and low 60s, with party sunny skies.

More Warm Weather This Week

Unsually warm weather for this time of year, will make a return this week. With the potential for 80 degree weather, later this week.

 For today, we will see temps in the low to mid 70s, away from the beaches. In Southern Queens and Brooklyn, a sea-breeze this afternoon, may prevent high temps from reaching 70 degrees. Tonight a backdoor cold front (a cold front coming from the east), will cause skies to cloud over and drop temps in 50s this evening than middle to upper 40s overnight. An isolated shower is also possible. Tomorrow with the light east/southeast winds, off the ocean and partly cloudy skies, high temps will only reach between 60-65 degrees.

On Tuesday night, the backdoor cold front, comes back as a warm front. This will cause winds to switch from a east/southeast direction, to a west/southwest direction. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, will have at least partial sunshine, with highs possibly reaching upper 70s to middle 80s. Especially farthest away from the beaches. Another cold front, could give us a chance of showers and t-storms sometime late Thursday or on Friday. But 90% of time, it will be dry.

I will have more updates this week, on the warmth and threat for rainfall.

Snow Late Tonight and Saturday Morning

 A winter storm coming from the  Midwest states, will deliver the  New York City's are firts accumulating snow this winter season. I've made map showing what to expect of this storm. Right now I think we the will see snow arrive sometime after midnight. Tomorrow morning it will begin to mix with sleet and perhaps change to all sleet before ending, early in the afternoon. But by then, 3" - 5" snow would of have accumulated.

The snow will not stick around for long however. Sunday will turn midler with temps in 40s and sunshine. Monday will see more rain and temps reach the 50s.

[IMG]http://i42.tinypic.com/5wi90z.jpg[/IMG]

12/19 NYC Weather

Weather Summary:

Today may be the best of the week. A weak cold front coming the west will bring some clouds tonight. But it's expected to come through dry. Clouds will stick through tomorrow night, as the front stalls just south of the area.

On Wednesday, the front will start coming back as a warm front. As an low pressure, moves along it. This will chance of rain during Wednesday afternoon and night. On Thursday the storm will exit the region. But another storm passing by to south could give more rain by Thursday night and Friday morning. Skies should clear out on Friday afternoon. Before another storm system arrives on Christmas Eve.

For those travelling or looking for a white Christmas. Some colder air may be involved with this storm, for some wet snow along with rain. But it's too early to going into more details.

Seven-day Forecast:

Today :  Partly sunny. High around 46.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low around 38.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. High around 46.

Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy. Low around 41.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Rain possible in the afternoon. High around 54.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High around 54.

Friday:  Mostly cloudy and rain possible in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. High around 50.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Rain and wet snow possible. High 44.

Christmas Day: Partly sunny. High around 46.

Why has it been so warm lately?

Since November, we have been seeing more warmer weather than usual. High temperatures, reaching the 60s and even touching 70. There have been days that have been little cold. But more days that have been much warmer. There are number of reasons why we have be warm of late. But they require a knowledge of meteorology (study of weather), to to better understand them all. So I will just explain the top reason why it hasn't gotten very cold here yet. As simply as I can.

Our weather during the late fall and winter seasons, is often influenced by a weather pattern  called the North Atlantic Oscilation (NAO).  There are two phases of the NAO. The first phase is negative. The second phase is positive. Each phase has a different influence on weather.

The negative phase of the NAO, is when there a large high pressure system near Greenland, causing the jetstream to dive over the Eastern United States. This results in more colder days and snowstorms for the New York city area. This phase is also called the Greenland Block. Which you might hear the weathermen on tv talk about, sometimes.

The positive phase of the NAO, is when there is large low pressure system over the North Atlantic, that causing the jetstream to run further north over the Northern United States. This keeps the cold air up in Canada, resulting in more warmer days and rainstorms for the NYC area.

You may of guessed it. But we are have been the positive NAO phase! So how long will this continue?  I don't know yet. So in the meantime, enjoy the warmer weather!

Images courtesy of media.mgbg.com

NYC & LI Weather Report 10/11/11

Weather Summary:

Today will see sunshine filtered by more high clouds. Light east winds off the ocean will keep temps from reaching the 80s again today. Tonight clouds will thicken up, as an area of low pressure approaches from the south. This low will give us rain by tomorrow afternoon and continue in tomorrow night. Generally, a half-inch to one inch of rain is expected for much of the area, through tomorrow night. Locally higher amounts are possible. Which might lead to some minor flooding in poor drainage areas.

A frontal system coming from the south and west, will give us more showers on Thurs and Friday. More heavy rainfall is possible. But major flooding is not expected. Cool and drier weather returns for the weekend.

Five-day & weekend forecast for the NYC Metro Area & Long Island:

Today - Partly sunny. Highs in the middle 70s.

Tonight - Mostly cloudy. Lows in the middle 50s.

Tomorrow - Cloudy and breezy. Rain arriving by early afternoon. Rain could be heavy at times. Highs in the middle to upper 60s.

Tomorrow night - Cloudy. Periods of rain. Rain could be heavy at times, especially early. Lows around 60.

Thursday - Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. Highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Friday - Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of showers. Highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Saturday - Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the middle to upper 60s.

Hurricane Irene a Threat to NYC

Major Hurricane Irene is now lashing the Bahamas and could threaten our area this weekend, with heavy rains, strong winds and coastal flooding. As of the 8am intermediate advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Irene was centered about 185 miles SE of Nassau in the Bahamas. The maximum sustained winds are 120mph. Which makes a category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It's moving to the NW at 12mph.

Irene will likely strengthen into category 4 hurricane tomorrow. Most of the computer forecast models show Irene turning north, this weekend. Brushing the North Carolina coast, then heading towards our area. By the time it arrives at in our region, it will be weakening over cooler ocean waters. But it could still be a Cat 1 hurricane. The biggest threat for hurricane force winds, will be over LI. But it possible depending on far west it tracks, that we could see hurricane force winds in NYC.

Everyone in NYC and LI area needs to prepare for this storm. Stay tuned to J&M New York for the latest updates, on this potentially dangerous hurricane for our area.

Flooding Rains for NYC and Long Island

A storm has brought between 5 to 10 inches of rain, across much of New York and Long Island since early Sunday. This has caused major flash flooding on some streets and highways, with cars being stuck in the water. Basements in homes and business have also received flooding. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for more heavy rainfall and flooding likely today.

Flash flooding is dangerous, where ever it occurs. Take extra precaution today in protecting life and property, in areas more prone to flooding. Also don't drive vehile into areas where flooding is occuring! Visit the National Weather Service site for latest information on any warnings or advisories issued for flooding today:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/

You can also follow them on Facebook

Tropical Storm Threatenes the Eastern Carribean

Tropical Storm Emily continues to slowly strengthen in the Eastern Carribean.. As of 5pm today, the National Hurricane Center has the storm with 50mph winds and moving to the WNW at 12mph. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, Haiti and Dominican Republic. Emily is expected to turn to the NW and track over Hispanola during the next 24-36 hours, bringing tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall to those islands. A tropical storm watch has also been issued for the US Virgin Islands, Southwest Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Currently, Emily is not forecasted to become a hurricane. But that could change, if stays out over the Carribean waters longer.

After moving out of the Carribean, Emily will likely move over the Bahamas and then curve out into open Atlantic, and pose little threat to United States East coast.

By Miguel